The SABR- Dodgers

The blog that helps you out with understanding the always interesting organization in the Los Angeles Dodgers. Feel free to vent, moan, and give advice to other bloggers.

Saturday, December 24, 2005

Tackling David Wells

One hot topin on this morning and last night was the prospect (hahaha that was a pun and you will find out why in a second) of trading a prospect for David Wells, the 43 year-old pitcher on the Red Sox. Here is how I analyzed him, using my new Bill James book as help:

My Estimate of Possible Years he Would Help:

2-3 years if he plays that long

Best Prospect I would Consider Trading:

Edwin Jackson

Bill James' Projected Stat Line in his latest Handbook:

G | GS | IP | H / HR | SO / BB / HBP | W / L | BR/9 | ERA

32 | 32 | 192 | 212 / 22 | 114 / 29 / 6 |12 / 9 | 11.5 | 3.88

In other words, he is projected to do very well next year. I saw Boomer (for that is his nickname) pitching when I was in Boston over the Summer and he pitched a CG, so of course I think he can still play. He does not allow many baserunners per 9 innings (BR/9 is very good), he has a good ERA, he has a tremendous SO/BB ratio (almost 4/1!), and it is obvious he can still play. The question is for how long, and that is very unpredictable in somebody like Mr. Wells, who is 43.

The problem lies here: David Wells can give you about two or three quality years and then will probably retire. We do not want to give up a prospect (I think that is what the Red Sox want for Boomer) that will give the Red Sox more than two or three quality years, because then it would be a bad deal.

If Ned Colletti finds a prospect who will not do very well in the majors, and the Red Sox like him, give it a shot. But do not go out there and shoot out some Chad Billingsley or Justin Orenduff.

Ned should play this deal extremely conservative and make sure he does not get ripped off. We can hold over the NL West ship and maybe win with the team we have right now, and David Wells would only tighten the fort (sorry those were two horrible metaphors). This kind of deal should be very, very tentative.


My Bill James projections for our club will probably come after the Boomer situation sorts itself out, so hold onto you trousers for now.


  • At 2:39 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

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